September 1 - first bell - traditionally marks the business season kick off in Russia. But this fall the big question is, what will happen next? Will we see a further softening in the oil price, the Rouble and business confidence or will this be ‘it’, the beginning of the long road back to the good times?
The answer is that no-one knows, especially the experts. The future is an unknowable country, and there are no guide books. Reality changes quicker than people can write about it. Yet the economic fundamentals aren’t good - global demand is declining, currency wars are erupting, and political tensions in such climates tend to remain sharp.
So, in the current environment should organisations stick or twist?* Sticking - striving for ever-greater efficiency - risks cutting into bone, scuttling organisational resilience. But twisting - getting ahead of rivals by building capabilities to adapt better and faster to a volatile and uncertain world requires leaders to think and act anew.
The decision - what CEOs are paid the big bucks to get right - will determine the ‘vector’ (the direction and speed) of Russian business this year and next. For, while it's true that a few big macro-issues matter a lot, the hundreds of thousands of micro-decisions leaders make today can matter far more.
So, is this it?
*For those unfamiliar with this term it comes from the British version of Black Jack - pontoon - when if a player doesn’t want another card s/he 'sticks' and 'twists' if s/he takes another card (believing it to be a winning one)
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