A fourth mobile operator will launch in Moscow this month, jump-starting a price war by ‘aggressively undercutting its rivals.’ If you're in Moscow you may have seen the billboards?
Good news for consumers, if the expected 30% price fall materialises. Less good for the established mobile operators. Their ‘cozy’ world is about to be disrupted as dissatisfied customers - one-fifth of the entire market - exit through their doors first.
Are the big boys worried? Apparently not. Aside from their infrastructure advantage they are confident that ‘client loyalty’ will ensure they withstand any threat. But are they right?
As Mark Twain (is often wrongly attributed to have) put it “It ain’t what we don’t know that gets us into trouble, but what we think for sure that just ain’t so!”
Claims of customer loyalty are not idle boasts. Russia’s telecoms industry has some of the sharpest marketing professionals in the game (witness Beeline’s rapid ascent from obscurity to global brand). They will all have hard evidence, drawn from years of customer research, that suggests the Tele2 threat is nothing for them to lose sleep over.
But what if all their data is wrong?
CFO pressure forced marketing departments to rapidly improve over the last decade. Campaigns are now run with one eye to their return on investment. The focus on hard data has pulled marketing away from its core purpose - understanding why people behave the way they do.
A few years ago Starbucks wanted to understand which customers drank which coffees in its shops. When buying coffee customers were incentivised to fill out a short questionnaire asking their age, occupation and ‘how do you have your coffee?’
On most measures the campaign was a success - except one. The results were confusing. Most people had said they have their coffee black, but the point-of-sales systems were showing that almost no-one has black coffee in their shops. Something was wrong.
The answer is that it’s our perception about how humans behave that is wrong.
In contrast to the default thinking of conventional economists and management theorists, humans are not rational, self-interested actors in full possession of perfect information. When asked for what we do, (or what we think we do), we are utterly unreliable (e.g. we like our coffee black, but don’t order that).
When asked a question by someone face to face we consciously or sub-consciously gift the answers we think people want to hear, or game the system to project how we want to be seen. It’s one of the reasons focus groups are fatefully flawed in minutes.
‘Do I love your brand?’ Well, I don’t want to disappoint you so, ok i’ll say it. Am I satisfied with your offering? Well, sometimes I am, sometimes I’m not - how do I record that on a 5 point scale? (Most people will discover a safe score, which is why your customer satisfaction scores probably hover around a 4 on a 5 point scale or 7 on a 10 point scale).
So Starbucks changed their question to ‘how did you have your coffee today.’ Removing opinion (and therefore bias) from responses they focused customers on their experience. The result was a set of figures that bore a close resemblance to the hard numbers coming out of the cash registers.
The only true test of customer loyalty is how people act: did they sign on again, then they’re loyal, at least for now. True tests of customer loyalty are how people act, NOT how people tell you they will act.
So, if the telecom majors are confident that customer loyalty (rather than customer inertia) will deflect the competitive threat of Tele2, but those numbers are built on people’s opinions - then it may be time to re-think. The future isn’t just an extension of the past.
Establishing a weak signal detection unit will provide real-time experience (not opinion) based evidence of emerging shifts in attitudes and behaviours. This will support timely responses if the market dies start to be disrupted on price.
Make sure you’re not caught out by what you thought you knew for sure, but that just isn’t so!
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